US retailers upgrade forecast for H1 2024 import growth despite Suez diversions
US retailers have raised their forecast for import growth during the first half of 2024 despite volatility in the Red Sea that continues to disrupt shipping through the Suez Canal.
“Only about 12% of US-bound cargo comes through the Suez Canal but the situation in the Red Sea is bringing volatility and uncertainty that are being felt around the globe,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), said Friday in the Global Port Tracker (GPT), which is published monthly by the NRF and Hackett Associates. “US retailers are working to mitigate the impact of delays and increased costs.”
The GPT forecasts that US imports in February will increase 20.4% over February 2023, up from the 13.8% increase predicted in last month’s report. The tracker also upgraded the year-on-year gains for March (up 5.5% vs. 4.7% last month), April (up 2.6% vs. 0.2%) and May (up 0.3% vs. a decline of 0.8%).
Retailers forecast imports six months out, with GPT calling for a 5.5% year-over-year increase for June imports. That would bring the GPT projection for imports during the first half of 2024 to a gain of 5.3% over H1 2023.
US imports for the full calendar year of 2023 declined 12.8% from 2022.
Source: Journal of Commerce
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